After a 3.3 per cent contraction in 2020 and a 5.8 per cent rebound in 2021, global GDP growth is projected to slow to 2.7 per cent in 2022 and 2.6 per cent in 2023, said global financial services provider S&P Global Market Intelligence.
This forecast is attributable to the US economy's weaker first-half performance, while the 2023 downgrade reflects the widespread impacts of more restrictive financial conditions.
"With the world's population about 1.0 per cent annually, our outlook implies solid gains in real per capita GDP and thus avoidance of a global recession," said Sara Johnson, Executive Director, Economic Research, S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The risk of recession remains high in the 40-50 per cent range in major economies.
Global GDP has likely declined in the second quarter of 2022, but this expected outcome is not inevitably the beginning of a global recession.
"A period of subpar global growth is the most likely outcome. Absent of new shocks, the global economy is projected to resume growth, albeit at a tepid annual pace of under 2.0 per cent quarter-quarter in the third and fourth quarters of 2022," Johnson said.
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